Steven Sparks | Backwoods Land Company

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REAL ESTATE CRASH IN 2023 OR JUST A MORE STABLE MARKET?

 

 

I am often asked whether or not the market is crashing. I would answer yes, the market is crashing, well….sort of. New listings are crashing (usually happens this time of year), but so are marketing times. Sales are down but list to sales price is up.  What does this mean? It means there is STILL shortage of inventory. Why you ask? It is possible that the high level of home buying activity in the past year may have temporarily reduced the pool of potential buyers AND sellers. Also, so many refinanced at such low rates during the covid pandemic, it would be hard to think that many would make a move in the foreseeable future. Low mortgage rates can make it more affordable for homeowners to stay in their current homes and can reduce the incentive to sell and move to a new home.

 

2008 vs 2023

 

The most striking contrast between the present recession and that of 2008 is the state of housing credit. In 2008, the foreclosures and bankruptcies that arose served as a warning of the impending job loss recession. However, today’s story is vastly different. Loose lending, adjustable-rate mortgages which led to sudden high monthly payments, and 0 money down loans are not the major factor when the economy went belly up in 2008. Homeowner equity is at the highest level it’s been in the past several decades as well. Credit scores are areoverall up over the past 12 years. Hale expects U.S. home prices to rise by 5.4% this year, while Morgan Stanley is forecasting a 7% drop from the peak in June 2022.
Still, many economists agree that a housing market crash like the one we experienced in 2008 is highly unlikely. The factors that caused home prices to plunge during the Great Recession—specifically lax lending standards and a surplus of inventory—aren’t prevalent in our current market.10 Therefore, home values are expected to remain comparatively stable.

‘Are the foreclosures here yet?’ ‘When do you think we begin to see foreclosures hitting the market?’

It is difficult to predict exactly how it will evolve over time because the housing market is influenced by many factors and can change rapidly, however, at the present time, it appears there are a pool of buyers in every property value segment that are willing to pay more than they did even 3 months ago. The market has been slowly increasing in terms of value, but sharply decreasing inventory. Note that in the following charts, there are some small changes that may signify the market pulling in a different direction but also not it is January and is those changes are typically normal for the 1st quarter.

If you’ve been frustrated by a lack of inventory in the past, later 2023 may bring new opportunities for you to find the perfect home. And today’s buyers have more negotiating power than they’ve had in years. Call us today @ (662) 523-4603 for a consultation!

Let’s start with sales prices of $700,000 to $1,000,000. It is clear that overall price per sf in the segment is increasing despite low inventory. Days on market is decreasing, list to sales price ratio slightly increasing.

 

 

Slight uptick in list to sales price ratio

 

$500,000 to $700,000 Range

Price Per Sf slightly up

 

Median price somewhat steady

Listings down, sale absorption rate up

List to sales price ratio slightly down. Although fewer sales, there is a lack of Inventory in this price range putting upward pressure on sales prices

 

$325,000 to $500,000

Small Decrease in Exposure Time on the Market

 

 

 

$230,000 to $350,000

 

Again, similar to the other housing supply segments

Significantly more sales than listings with past several months

 

$185,000 to $235,000

 

 

Although a decreasing housing supply, within this price range, it is has been less significant until recently as shown below

 

A slight but steady increase in price per SF

 

$95,000 to $185,000

 

Sharp decrease in housing supply within the past 3 months

 

$50,000 to $95,000

 

 

 

$30,000 to $50,000 – Cash Dominated Sales

As demonstrated, all of these market price segments have several common undeniable trends. Low and decreasing housing inventory, increasing list to sales price ratio, decreasing days on market, increasing price per sf and sales prices. Although, there are many more factors to consider in appraisal, this overall macro value show significant enough trends in each market segment to determine that we are still in Northeast Mississippi are in the midst of a housing shortage with a pool ready buyer. However, finding willing sellers is the current challenge facing the market in 2023.

This should all help with builders in the near future and evidently is now as shown below. We should also an increase in multifamily starts.

 

Of some interest, in the above chart that average per sf of foreclosed homes in the area has been trending downward.

 

 

In conclusion, listings are crashing but the prices are not due to a pool of willing buyers with few sellers willing to sell. Time will tell whether this changes, but there are no significant statistical signs showing it will in the near future. In my opinion, the market will eventually reach a state that is more in an equilibrium in 2023.

Call us today @ (662) 523-4603 for a consultation!

 

 

 

 

REAL ESTATE CRASH IN 2023 OR JUST A MORE STABLE MARKET? Read More »

10 REASONS TO ENROLL YOUR TIMBERLAND IN CRP PROGRAM

 

 

There are several reasons why landowners might choose to enroll their timberland in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP):

  1. To improve the health and productivity of the land: Enrolling in CRP allows landowners to take a break from actively managing their land, which can give the soil and vegetation a chance to rest and recover. This can lead to improved soil health, increased wildlife habitat, and increased plant diversity.
  2. To protect water quality: By planting cover crops or establishing grassy buffers, landowners can help to filter out sediment and nutrients that might otherwise run off into nearby streams and rivers. This can improve water quality and reduce the risk of downstream flooding.
  3. To reduce erosion: Planting cover crops or establishing grassy buffers can help to stabilize the soil and reduce erosion, which can be a problem on sloping or highly erodible land.
  4. To receive financial assistance: Landowners who enroll in CRP can receive annual rental payments and cost-share assistance to help cover the costs of establishing and maintaining conservation practices.
  5. To support wildlife habitat: Enrolling in CRP can create habitat for a wide variety of wildlife species, including pollinators, birds, and small mammals. This can provide important ecosystem services and increase the recreational value of the land.
  6. Carbon sequestration: Planting timber in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) can help sequester carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, which can help mitigate climate change.
  7. Soil conservation: Timber plantings in the CRP can help reduce soil erosion, protect water quality, and improve soil health.
  8. Habitat creation: Timber plantings in the CRP can provide habitat for a variety of wildlife species, including birds, mammals, and insects.
  9. Aesthetic value: Timber plantings can add visual interest and beauty to the landscape.
  10. Timber production: Timber plantings in the CRP can provide a source of wood for various uses, including construction, furniture, and paper production.

10 REASONS TO ENROLL YOUR TIMBERLAND IN CRP PROGRAM Read More »

GUIDE TO LAND BUYING

 

There are many factors that come into play when forming a opinion of value of land. Whether it be a one-acre lot or a sprawling 500 acre land tract, all lots and tracts of land were created unequal.

This is a general overview that can applied to most types whether searching for recreational, farm, timber and other types of land.

OPEN LEGAL ACCESS

Landlocked property means that there is no current legal access to the property to a public road. If the property is landlocked, knock off at least 50% of value. However, it does not mean that there is no potential access to the property. There is always access! How costly depends on many factors. The most obvious being the location of the parcel to the nearest public road.

In the case below there is a public road very close from the outlined landlocked parcel. Cost should reasonable, depending on your area and other factors to be grantedan easement in this situation. There is no such thing as ‘no access’, rather ‘no access currently’ as you will be able to gain access through a granted easement. For someone willing to endure the time and expense, there are potiental profits in landllocked parcels.

In the case below there is a public road very close from the outlined landlocked parcel of land. Depending on adjacent landowner puchback, costs should be reasonable to obtain easement access.

landlocked parcel near road

What about this one?

landlocked parcel easement

Hopefully, someone, the adjoining vacant landowner AND one of the parcels with homes will grant access. If not, then this could potentially be much more complicated and costly.

Besides being landlocked, some of the potential factors or value drivers when considering purchasing a piece of land is the legal access. Is there access to a public road? Is it legal? Is there an easement? Is it legal?

Many other factors can influence land value, however, access, especially no current access, is one of the most obvious. Financing may be difficult as well. Maintenance agreements for home construction, legal access and other issues pertaining to land access is some things to consider when searching for land to purchase.

TOPOGRAPHY

Topography plays a key role in determining land value. If you have tract of land near ongoing residential development that is hilly, rugged or sloped etc., the cost to develop would be substantially higher than one that is generally level. Although in some areas, building into rugged rocky land is a sought-after aesthetic feature.

One of the most renowned architects of our time, Frank Lloyd Wright inspired generations of home architects, builders and designers that incorporated the blending the structure into the environment. The result is some of the most awe-inspiring buildings you will ever see, such as this one.

SHAPE

The shape of the land can a have a huge impact on value. Consider the below property shapes.

The top land shape would likely be the more valuable to the typical prudent buyer due to layout of the land.  There is frontage that lends itself to development due the lsyout of the first property. It has what could be considered and extra lot abutting the rut while the second property (bottom) would likely have very little potential within the typical rediential neighborhood.

best land shapes

For a 100 acre property with 20 year merchantable timber stands, shape can coincide with ingress and egress, interior road systems as well as frontage to a pubic road. If the interim use is for timber investment and the future use is possible development, then shape can much of a factor in the buying decision of timberland.

Shape can make the difference between a profitable land investment and a poor one. Investigating potential uses that can be derived from the shape of the land can earn dividends.

LOCATION & SIZE

Location is an obvious factor in choosing a piece of land. A 500 acre tract of land near town where development is occurring may have high development potential while the same tract 15 miles outside of town may be more suitable for cropland, cattle and other farming operations.

A 40 acre tract 15 miles outside of the city may be suited for a hobby farm or hunting land. Maybe a place for family and friends to gather and congregate. Or maybe just a place to fish, hunt, trail ride and/or to pass along to a future generation.

Value per acre will generally decrease the larger the tract of land you are purchasing due to diminished returns or utility.

The Dictionary of Real Estate Appraisal defines “diminishing utility” as “the concept that the consumption of each succeeding unit of economic good yields less satisfaction than the preceding unit. Marginal utility discussed in the Dictionary of Real Estate, is the additional satisfaction or benefit (utility) that a consumer derives from buying an additional unit of a commodity or service. The concept implies that the utility or benefit to a consumer of an additional unit of a product is inversely related to the number of units of that product he already owns. The more the land the less per acre would pay vs. a smaller similar tract on average.

WILDLIFE

A diverse array of vegetation, transitions in topography, water sources such as streams or creeks, sanctuaries and cover, lends itself for support for of wide spectrum of wildlife and are ideal for buyers of recreational property for hunting purposes. Rock outcroppings are also typically an attractive feature for buyers of land for wildlife purpose and for aesthetic value.

ZONING

Zoning can be an important factor in determining land value. What kind of restrictions exist within the zoning district? Some agricultural zoning districts limit the density of agricultural uses. Many limit the type and size of structures built upon the land. They are typically not limited to residential uses and included churches, schools, feed stores, kennels, hospitals, offices and other general commercial or special uses.

SOIL TYPE

Bedrock and sand are some of the best soil types to build structures on. One of the qualities that these two soils have in common that make them good choices for building is that they are good for allowing water to drain away from a building.

Loamy soils are good for building and is also ideal for growing crops such as wheat and vegetables such as cotton. Loamy soils make up a large portion of the North and Central Mississippi area.

Clay soils on other hand, are generally the worst type of soil to build on. When clay is moist it becomes pliable, making it easier to move. when this happens, it puts a great deal of pressure on a foundation, causing them to crack.

GUIDE TO LAND BUYING Read More »

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